Q&A for 1Q of FY2016.3
Q&A for the First Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending March 2016
Date | Friday, August 7, 2015 5:00 pm-6:00 pm |
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Location | 20F Conference Room, Garden Air Tower |
Respondents | Takashi Tanaka, President; Hirofumi Morozumi, Executive Vice President; Makoto Takahashi, Senior Vice President; Yuzo Ishikawa, Senior Vice President; Tsutomu Fukuzaki, Associate Senior Vice President; Hidehiko Tajima, Associate Senior Vice President; Yoshiaki Uchida, Associate Senior Vice President; Takashi Shoji, Vice President; Hiroki Honda, General Manager, Corporate Management Division; Kenji Aketa, General Manager, Investor Relations Department (MC) |
Questioner 1
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- During the 1Q of this term, use of data seems to have increased in the telecommunications industry at large, owing to the rise in the subscription rate to high data service plans deriving from the tiered data service plan. What is the reason behind the au ARPA already growing to ¥5,600 in the 1Q comparing to the full-year forecast of ¥5,610?
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In short, it is because the previously disclosed ARPU kept steady. In combination with the growing number of tablet-based subscriptions, this has pushed up ARPA. While the figures are stronger than planned, as various events are planned for the 2Q, we are not expecting a better performance for this term as a whole as of this time.
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- How does the key handset for the 2Q (new iPhone) relate to ARPA?
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Growths in tablets and routers are more relevant to ARPA than the new smartphone.
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- While there are no published figures regarding your business in Myanmar, but the published figures for telenor shows that ARPU is stable, slightly under $6, amid the ongoing price reduction, what is contributing to such good sales and subscription rates?
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SIM cards are gaining prevalence more quickly than we predicted; previously the supply and demand balance of SIM cards was not good, with one SIM card priced at ¥40,000 to ¥50,000, but now all companies are providing SIM cards for around ¥150 per card, which is boosting subscriptions. We cannot give the specific figures as this is a joint business with MPT, but we can say that the ARPU is comparable to other companies and that we have more subscribers than our competitors. However, the competitive environment is getting increasingly harsh, with competitors expanding their area coverage, we will also accelerate investments in order to expand our area coverage to 70% by March 31, 2016. For this reason, our annual operating income in the global segment will not simply be a quadruple of the 1Q performance.
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- How are you going to deal with the au WALLET Market, which is to start this summer?
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We are earnestly working on it. KDDI has offline goods sales experience with mobile handset accessories, and unlike in e-commerce, there is an advantage of the shop staff being able to make recommendations to visiting customers. We firmly believe that the actual products can earn their appreciation.
In online sales, the subsidization of LUXA has brought together young members who are experts at e-commerce. We are planning for an announcement soon; we have heard that LUXA is enjoying improvements in product procurement and in other domains from this tie-up with KDDI. We believe that our customers will be happy with our products sold on the new site.
Questioner 2
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- We acknowledged that there has been a major price drop in Myanmar recently. How much of an impact did this have on the 1Q performance? When will the SIM-related income be reflected in the P/L statement? (When users utilize the cards or at the point of sales?)
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The settlement period of Myanmar business is 3 months ahead of Japan (the 1Q is January to March 2015). We admit that there has been price reduction, but it has no impact on the 1Q settlement. The 2Q ARPU may be impacted by the price reduction, and we are aiming for a further increase in the number of subscribers. The point at which it will be reflected in our income is, now that this is a joint business, when customers use the SIM cards. Previously, when it was solely handled by MPT, income was recognized at the time of SIM card sales.
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- There has been a year-on-year drop in operating cash flow. Is there a special reason for this?
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We understand this question to be referring to the 50 billion yen year-on-year drop in the 1Q free cash flow. While EBITDA shows a year-on-year increase, tax payment increased about 34 billion yen. In addition, we had a drop in installment receivables from mobile handsets and a carryover of significant debt from the end of the last term. The combination of the above resulted in the increase of payments in the 1Q.
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- Would this normalize over the term?
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It is according to plan, and there is no change in our free cash flow plan.
Questioner 3
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- The number of tablet-based subscriptions show a 2.3 times year-on-year increase, but on the other hand, the number of mobile devices per person showed only a 0.04 year-on-year increase, which implies that tablets do not account for the major part of mobile contracts on which ARPA is based. What is the breakdown of the increase in the number of mobile devices per person?
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We understand that this question is about the composition of ARPA. While we have mentioned an increase in tablets symbolically, tablet-based subscriptions are not showing significant growth as measured by their proportion of ARPA; however, we are expecting future growth. As the 1Q ARPA growth factor, ARPU from general handsets is well-controlled, enabling a pure add-on of increased revenue from tablets and routers.
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- When is the impact of the new price plan for au ARPA expected to come to an end? I would also like to know about the impact of the new price plan in the Business Services segment.
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The new price plan was introduced in August 2014, which means that the 3Q and subsequent quarters will not be impacted by the new price with regard to the year-on-year comparison. While the high data service plan contract rate experienced a temporary drop amongst the tiered plans, the foothold is now stable and as a result is suppressing the impact of the reduction in voice services.
On the other hand, in the Business Services segment where voice call charges are dominant, the prominent reduction in voice-related revenue associated with the transition to the new price plan is having a great impact. We predict that there will be impact due to the expected increase in subscribers throughout the term.
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- It seems that added value ARPA has not improved much from the second half for the fiscal year ended March 2015. Is this because of seasonal factors or an effect of measures? When will the next growth come?
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The stagnation of added value ARPA is caused by the discontinuation of some collaborative services for feature phones at the end of last term. We will be dropping non-profitable collaborative projects. The smartphone users' utilization is steadily expanding.
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- If there is progress in the review of the next medium-term management plan, I would like more information, particularly about shareholder returns.
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The next medium-term management plan is currently under internal review and will be announced at next year's final settlement, which will cover both the business and shareholder return aspects.
Questioner 4
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- I understand that the business in Myanmar is going strong and is contributing to the Global Services segment revenue, but I would like to know the mechanism for how the upcoming network construction and upgrades can impact the financial statements.
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The business operation in Myanmar is a joint operation where three companies, namely MPT, Sumitomo Corporation, and KDDI mutually invest resources and split the revenue earned through business. However, new capital investments are to be made by our local subsidiary (KSGM); new capital will be lease receivables that are not recorded as depreciation. First, there will be expenditure in cash flow, but it should be all recoverable. The mechanism allows for continuing expansion in the number of subscribers and ARPU, ensuring profits, provided that costs are well-controlled.
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- Are leased property temporary treated as capital investment? Once they are cashed out, how are they recovered?
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Based on IFRS, they are recorded as lease receivables. Those cashed out are recovered by means of lease fees.
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- Out of the profit increase described in page 5 of the financial results presentation document, what constitutes ‘Other’ in the Personal Services segment and ‘Other’ in general?
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The breakdown of +10.6 billion yen in ‘Other’ in the Personal Services segment is as follows: +4 billion yen of fixed line communications fee revenue, +3.9 billion yen of handset sales gross margin, and +2.7 billion yen from others. ‘Other’ in general is the total increase in earnings in segments other than Personal Services.
Questioner 5
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- Concerning the mention of moving up capital investment in Myanmar, does this mean an increase in the amount of the previous plan? Or, is capital investment going to be brought forward within the scope of the plan?
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The timing of capital investment in Myanmar initially planned to take place during this term is going to be front-loaded; there will be no increase in the amount.
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- Concerning the mention of the former ARPU-based performance staying flat year-on-year, is the impact of the new price plan not apparent because of the growth in data ARPU?
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The Monthly Discount is also well-controlled, added to that there was an increase in data-based ARPU deriving from the migration from feature phone to smartphone while voice-based ARPU did not drop as much as expected.
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- I assume that the sales cost has decreased due to a stable competitive environment. The IFRS makes this unclear, so I would like you to clarify if the sales cost has decreased year-on-year along with its scale.
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We acknowledge that competition has intensified during this term's 1Q compared to last term's 1Q. Nevertheless, we have managed to comprehensively reduce the sales cost in all realms, including commissions, Monthly Discount, and point service, by making full use of a variety of operations.
Questioner 6
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- The Business segment shows good profitability while sales stagnated; what is the reason behind this? How does this translate in the future to the term plan?
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Sales growth was not favorable due to the impact of reduced voice-based service income as a result of introducing the new price plan in our mobile device business. On the other hand, earnings were good in the 1Q by virtue of satisfactory cost control. Considering the likelihood of the impact of the new price continuing for some time into the future, we would like to simply reiterate our initial expectation regarding the level of earnings for this term.
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- On the topic of “Penetration among au Hikari Subscribers” on page 12 of the financial statements presentation document, what kind of users are those who “are not subscribed to au Smart Value,” which account for 40% of the au Hikari users? What is your strategy for getting more subscriptions in the future?
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The users in question are the feature phone users who are not eligible for the au Smart Value plan and some smartphone users. We have only begun reaching out to feature phone users, not to mention that we are advancing with our shift-to-smartphone promotion. We are on the mark regarding market demand. To smartphone customers who are not subscribed to the Smart Value plan, we are approaching them with direct mail and telemarketing. We believe that there is still room to increase the number of subscriptions.
Questioner 7
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- KDDI also provides MVNO services; I would like to know about the current number of subscriptions and the environment.
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Our subsidiary, KVE (KDDI VALUE ENABLER), is an MVNO. The number of subscriptions has not been published yet, and we will just say that it is in the incubation phase. We are going to work toward increasing the number of subscriptions.
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- How do you count the number of mobile devices per person as described in page 10 of the financial statements presentation document?
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We count by aggregation based on account holders' names and addresses. Because we count in units of account holders, we cannot count by identifying the actual user on an individual device basis. For example, if four devices are used by each individual member of a family of four, but they are all subscribed under the father's name, the number of mobile devices per person for the father, who is the subscriber, will be four.
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