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- Performance Highlights and Q&A for the Third Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending March 2024
Performance Highlights and Q&A for the Third Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending March 2024
Date | |
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Location | Online streaming from KDDI Hall |
Respondents |
[Presentation] [Q&A] |
Highlights of the Financial Results
The Presentation of the Financial Results
In "Highlights of the Financial Results" President Takahashi explained the consolidated results in FY24-03 Q3.
1. Consolidated Financial Results of FY24-03 Q3
2. Q1-3 Operating Income - Factors for Change
3. Multi-brand ARPU revenue
4. Momentum in telecom business
5. Multi-Brand ARPU
6. Business Services segment results
7. Toward a further growth orbit
Questioner 1
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- Regarding the fact that ARPU revenues remained flat, we felt that although the increase in the number of subscribers was strong, ARPU growth was not as strong as expected. Could you please explain the factors behind this flat growth and your prospect for ARPU for the Q4?
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Communications ARPU revenues are trending on track overall, and although the Q3 was negative 900 million yen year on year, the year-on-year gap has narrowed from Q1 to Q3, and if this trend continues, we expect the trend to turn positive in Q4 and continue to be positive in the next fiscal year.
One of the factors behind the somewhat weak communications ARPU was the somewhat weak voice portion; the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may have led to slightly different expectations for voice portion, which had been strong in the previous year.
However, the data portion is steadily growing and is expected to continue to grow.
Q4 usually tends to fall due to seasonal fluctuations, but we believe we can successfully bring it to a flat or better level. Please rest assured.
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- In the factors for change of consolidated operating income for the cumulative Q3, is it correct to assume that the "other" part is not a significant increase in business performance? Or is it possible that the impact of the rush demand for handsets up to December, which led to an increase in sales expenses, caused the flattening of the results that should have led to a higher growth?
I would like to ask about the breakdown of the "other" positive 16.7 billion yen. -
The main factor behind the 16.7 billion yen in the "other" was a 11.5 billion yen decrease in depreciation and amortization, which boosted profits.
The quarterly fluctuation of depreciation and amortization expenses is not large and the figure is the result of the accumulation up to the Q3.
There is also a positive impact from increased product supports ARPU revenues related to support for in-store setup and other services, although we cannot provide details of the figures.
On the other hand, there was an increase in costs and handling fee associated with handset sales promotions, which offset the increase in product supports ARPU revenues. Because of heavy sales promotions especially in Q3, the positive margin did not increase from Q2 to Q3.
- In the factors for change of consolidated operating income for the cumulative Q3, is it correct to assume that the "other" part is not a significant increase in business performance? Or is it possible that the impact of the rush demand for handsets up to December, which led to an increase in sales expenses, caused the flattening of the results that should have led to a higher growth?
Questioner 2
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- Could you tell us about the churn rate and the competitive environment?
The churn rate in the Q3 was up compared to the Q2 and compared to the same period last year.
In your explanation so far, you said that a significant factor was the increase in the composition of sub-brands. Is this understanding correct?
Also, the Business Law was revised at the end of December, and this has led to a decrease in the churn rate and contract cost, and furthermore, the migration to sub-brands is mitigating, which would be ideal, is that idea correct? Please tell us the status of the churn rate and the prospects for the Q4. -
You are right about the churn rate.
As for the details, the churn rate for au has improved, while the churn rate for UQ mobile has slightly increased.
The reason for the increase is for customers who contracted for the SIM only, and there is no significant change for UQ mobile customers who contracted for a set of handsets.
As for the prospects for Q4, the revision of the Business Law also regulates the sale of SIMs on a stand-alone basis, and we no longer have to spend a large amount of money on customers contracted on a stand-alone basis for SIMs, as was the case until Q3. As a result, the churn rate in Q4 is expected to move in the right direction. On the other hand, regarding the liquidity of handsets sales due to the revision of the Business Law, sales increased until December 26, the effective date of the law, including a rush, but declined after December 27.
However, the decline lasted for about the first two weeks. Since then, the sales have gradually recovered, and now there is no significant difference from the previous year, and we would like to accelerate handset sales and work on a solid increase in the number of IDs for the March sales season.
- Could you tell us about the churn rate and the competitive environment?
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- What do you see as the impact of the changes in the Business Law in terms of performance and competition?
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The impact just before and after the revision of the Business Law was significant, but after that, we believe that the business has returned to the same level as before.
We would like to rollout handset sales so that it will be on par with the previous year as much as possible, leading to increases in the number of IDs, Communications ARPU, and Communications ARPU revenues.
In terms of costs, there are acquisition costs, but due in part to the impact of IFRS, there is no significant impact in a single year, making progress in the right direction.
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- At the beginning of this term, you gave an overview of a V-shaped recovery for the next term, but that does not appear to be the case now.
If you have any measures for the next term in terms of costs and revenues on a consolidated basis, please let us know. -
Regarding this fiscal year's performance, we need to further improve our competitiveness from Q3 to Q4, and particularly in Q4, we plan to spend accordingly to ensure our competitiveness.
However, we will continue to seek 1.08 trillion yen in consolidated operating income as forecasted at the beginning of term.
We will give an overview of the next term along with guidance at the time of the next announcement of the main financial results. Since we have been steadily increasing income so far, we will continue to consider the trend of increasing income, and there is no change in our plan to rebound mainly in the au business.
- At the beginning of this term, you gave an overview of a V-shaped recovery for the next term, but that does not appear to be the case now.
Questioner 3
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- Communications ARPU in the Q3 has not yet recovered from the previous year. What is the impact of the increase due to large-capacity data and the decrease due to the brand mix with UQ mobile in the Q4?
Also, you mentioned the access charges are not expected to fall as much as last year, but will ARPU rise significantly in the Q4?
What about the increase in handset sales handling fees, which I don't think would be much of an increase since they would be split if IFRS were used? Also, you mentioned that handset sales have returned to the same level as the previous year since January. Is the churn rate the same? -
ARPU is recovering steadily.
ARPU for each brand is steadily expanding; au saw an increase in MAX plans due to strong sales of au Money Activity Plan, etc. UQ mobile also saw very strong sales of its "Komikomi Plan," and the ratio of medium and large usage plans, including "Tokutoku Plan," is increasing. Communications ARPU revenues are expected to continue such trend.
Access charges are expected to fall from last year, and overall Communications ARPU is also expected to increase year-on-year.
The churn rate is also expected to return just like sales, although the data for January is not yet available, and there is an impression that churn increased a little from December to January, partly in reaction to the rush.
We do not yet know the outlook for whole Q4, but liquidity is expected to return despite the impact of the revision of the Business Law. We hope to somehow keep it at the same level as the previous year.
Acquisition costs will not have such a significant impact in a single year since they can be deferred under IFRS, but there will be a slight increase for the current term.
- Communications ARPU in the Q3 has not yet recovered from the previous year. What is the impact of the increase due to large-capacity data and the decrease due to the brand mix with UQ mobile in the Q4?
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- Regarding the Business Services segment, could you tell us about the profit impact of M&A-related activities, such as the integration of the contact center business and the acquisition of overseas data centers, as well as the actual results for the Q3 and your expectations for the future?
Is there any change in your plan for double-digit growth in operating income for the Business Services segment as a whole, including organic growth, for the next fiscal year? -
There was no M&A impact in the first half of the current fiscal year, and the impact of Canadian data centers and the integration of the contact centers were added from the Q3. In addition, the impact of fuel price hikes, which had reduced profits in the first half compared to the previous fiscal year, was eliminated from the second half, resulting in an increase in income.
For the current fiscal year, we will make steady progress toward our target of double-digit growth in operating income, set at the beginning of the fiscal year.
In the next term, the impact of M&A, which began in the second half of the current term, will be recorded for the full year, and the NEXT Core business is growing steadily in all 3 categories, so the company will continue to achieve solid growth as we did in the current term.
- Regarding the Business Services segment, could you tell us about the profit impact of M&A-related activities, such as the integration of the contact center business and the acquisition of overseas data centers, as well as the actual results for the Q3 and your expectations for the future?
Questioner 4
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- I would like to ask about the competitive environment for mobile services, including corporate customers.
Although Rakuten Mobile's net increase in IDs has been reported since the end of last year, is it correct to assume that this is probably due to net new corporate customers, and that KDDI is not impacted by this?
Also, considering the current situation, please tell us if there have been any changes in the competitive environment. -
As for the competitive environment, particularly for Rakuten Mobile, I think new corporate customers are increasing as you mentioned.
There is talk of the 6 million lines mark, but at least there has been no significant change in either Mobile Number Portability or roaming traffic, and there has not been a significant impact on both personal and corporate businesses.
- I would like to ask about the competitive environment for mobile services, including corporate customers.
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- Could you give us an idea of your thinking on operating income for the next term?
Despite the decrease in roaming revenues, considering the increase in communications ARPU revenues, profit growth in focus areas, and cost efficiency, is it correct to say that operating income will jump in comparison to the current term to some extent?
If there are any factors that are expected to increase costs or decrease income, please let us know. -
We are currently working on various initiatives for the next term, the accumulation of which will determine the starting line for the next term.
We are in the process of reviewing the operating revenues and profits in our medium-term plan, and we ask you to wait until the announcement of the main financial results for specific figures and breakdowns of next term.
However, we are still aiming for growth, and since we have identified the Business Services segment, energy, and financial business and etc. as focus areas, we hope that you will consider the trend of increasing income in these areas and etc.
- Could you give us an idea of your thinking on operating income for the next term?
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